Surfaces, Bowling Tools and Back-ups β Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost
Just 48 hours to go.
England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.
Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.
It's tough to make runs, isn't it?
Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.
A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".
When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.
Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.
Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.
Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.
A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.
A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.
Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.
After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test match cricket is about solving problems.
When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.
Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.
Whatβs happening with the Australian pace attack?
On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.
Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.
Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.
Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.
The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.
On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.
In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.
Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.
The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.
The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.
On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected β The tourists should pay attention.
Challenging Openings
Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?
Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.
Not anymore.
Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.
The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.
The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.
His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.
By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.
After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.
Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.
It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.
Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.
Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.
Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.
Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.
Spin war
For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger β spin.
Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.
England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.
It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.
During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.
Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.
Recall the potency of fast bowling?
It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.
In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.
Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.
Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.
Favorable Conditions?
England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.
Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.
In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.
The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.
Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.
On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.
Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca β site of past English struggles β but the modern Perth Stadium.
It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.
The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.
The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.
Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.
Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.
The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.
Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game β against India the previous year.
Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.
England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.
The issue in {day-night matches|
